Long Term Consequenses of Nuclear Power

I was born in Colorado Springs Colorado. The reason my family lived there was my father worked for a government contractor to the US Air Force. My father was in the US Air Force and had been educated through a master in Math, California Berkley, by the US Air Force. When he graduated, in the late 1940s he was initially stationed at an Air Force base in the desert, I don’t know the name of it, but around Roswell, where he worked on the hardening of electronic equipment to withstand the Electro Magnetic Pulse EMP of the explosion of a nuclear bomb. My father was present during some of the first nuclear bomb test conducted by the US and had the skin cancer to prove it.

He later went on to be an expert in the worldwide nuclear arsenal and if was alive today, would probably be part of the US inventorying and tracking of nuclear weapons. I say all of this to give some back ground to my relationship to nuclear energy. Nuclear power has been part of my life my entire life, although unknowingly as my father had double secret military clearances and NEVER spoke of these things to me. I only really found out about his career after I graduated from college and went to work for a Government contractor where colleagues of my father impressed upon me what an expert he was in the field and offered me some insight into what he had done all those years. My father was an unsung hero of the cold war of which so many go nameless.

I started Zenergy Bio Fuel, LLC in 2005 for one reason. I wanted to create new economies in developing nations for people living in extreme poverty through the expansion of energy crops. I really was naive when entered into the Energy business, but I had confidence from a previous IT related startup and figured I’d find my way. Many wonderful things have happened as a part of starting Zenergy, mostly that I have put myself to the test in learning the systems of energy, how they work, what they cost and how they impact our world. I love being in the conversation of energy and will always have a passion for it. For it is the fundamental foundation of our modern world. EVERYTHING is built on our ability to tap into planet earth’s and the universes energy.

When it comes down to it, we really aren’t as far along as I had hoped. Fire, boiling water and the wheel are the three fundamental scientific breakthroughs that man uses to power our lives. There are many more things on top of that around metallurgy, building engines, building boilers, building turbines etc., but fundamental Fire, Water and the Wheel are what has us have automobiles and electricity.

One of the things I love most about myself, is my willingness and ability to step back from an argument, walk around it, check it out, look it up one side and down the other and then see how the two opposing sides the argument are usually out for the same intention, just different paths. In my opinion, really everybody wants the same things, water, food, education, opportunity, peace, safety, to make a difference, to be loved and find their place in the world and hopefully enjoy some prosperity. It’s a matter of how those things are generated where humanity continues tripping over ourselves.

Eventually, hopefully, the world conscientiousness will develop enough that we can take a more holistic view in our approach to problem solving. For now, we mostly create a two sided debate or look to next quarters earnings and go to work fighting for our side or cause, which is so limited in scope and has been one of the greatest disappointments of my coming of age and being an adult. I first learned of this structure of thinking inside Evangelical Christianity which is mostly based around debate and proving points.

Even though we see through a dark glass dimly as Paul wrote I Corinthian 13 translated from original Greek - “Now we see but a poor reflection as in a mirror”, Humanity barely knows ourselves. For me, it is sad that the comfort of thinking we know something can justify destructive actions and separation between people. Creationism vs. Evolution is a primary example of this to me. Truth is, we don’t know where or how we came into being and somehow someone thinking we do means something. Everything regarding our origins is a theory with mass agreement for or against, PERIOD. Agreement amongst humans, however large the scale, has absolutely nothing to do with the truth. Why I am hopeful and Stand with our President to be a leader of inclusion, to bridge the gap of anger and fear that exists in current US politics and consciousness. One can always hope!

One of the things that I continually come up against in the energy business is a lack of willingness to consider the full picture or long term consequences, accept where they are useful in garnering agreement. I use to think that something was wrong, but now I understand that we are SO YOUNG in relationship to our ability to create our world. It seems too much for people to handle to take the time and energy to consider the broader view or consequences. Unfortunately, our structures for preserving wisdom between generations and having high regard for it, has been VERY limited. As related to energy, it was 1882 when the first hydroelectric power station came online in the US in Niagra Falls. It has only been 128yrs since American’s enjoyed the benefit of electricity. Such a short time and far we have come.

I would put global warming/climate change as a prime example of this human condition. What a heated debate that isn’t about the reality of scientific evidence, but is more about our best guess as to what that means. Fear from entrenched systems, businesses of energy, system of governments and money don’t like change. Will this new thinking possibly put them out of business? If the social conscientiousness changes in regard to this seemly impending issues, if we don’t adapt, it just may redefine humanities relationship to itself, which isn’t good for existing systems. Our currently energy infrastructure is fundamental to our modern life and is highly threatened when asked to change or adapt from its current sources of heat.

I think of this as related to IBM and the PC. The future was right in front of IBMs noses, but they didn’t have the vision to adapt.  So, it will probably take outside forces to create new energy, even if the current energy companies are the inventor of it, like IBM was with the PC. The general population is barraged with propaganda from both sides which I would suggest has created a stale mate that keeps business as usual, which perpetuates the current systems.  People mostly just want their car to work, their lights to come on and at a rate that they can afford.

Depending how far down the rabbit hole you want to go, you can see that our monetary system and energy systems are directly linked and sometimes to save the other, one must appear broken as a distraction from the other. Try it out in your mind and see how that makes you go hmmm…

I have a hard time saying the way it is, is OK, because we are all in this together, and for me, it’s a social responsibility to think past ourselves and for the future. And believe me; I understand that this stuff takes serious contemplation. It will bend your brain and challenge everything you know if you allow it too.

With all of that background, what this essay is really about is Nuclear Energy. President Obama gave his first state of the union last week, which I watched very intently. He stated in that he believes the US needs to implement nuclear power plants as our response to the CO2 problem of global warming. I spoke out against nuclear power during the Presidential campaign and here I want to outline why I am concerned about the further expansion of nuclear energy.

First off, let’s talk about how nuclear power works. Uranium is the fundamental fuel commodity utilized in nuclear power plants. The last time the DOE did a study on the estimated US reserves of Uranium was in 2003, for more info see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/reserves/ures.html Uranium is taken out of the ground by a well, much like an oil well, but much less complicated. So, it’s a LIMITED resource. Many of the numbers I’ve heard floated in the industry is that US Supply will only power approximately 100 years of nuclear power plants, pretty short term in the hopes of the continuation of humanity. However, just as with O&G, new methods of extraction will be discovered, new properties will be tapped etc. The point is that Nuclear Power is a finite resource based on a mineral extracted from the earth. It’s no different from coal or oil in that regard, as it is limited in scope. Even if it gives us 10 times that much time, the consequences MUST be considered by the populous, because they are real and they are scary.

Uranium is processed into nuclear rods and then those rods are utilized in a controlled manner to create a large heating element. That heating element is then used in conjunction with a steam boiler that drive steam turbines that drive generators and wala we have electricity. The only real difference between a coal power plant and a nuclear power plant is the heat source for boiling water. A nuclear rods current usefulness is spent when it can no longer boil water. We may get a few years of use out of a rod, but when we are done with it that is where the real fun begins.  Spent nuclear fuel is what most proponents of Nuclear Power don’t want you to understand or contemplate and from my personal view, I wonder if they actually consider them.

So what makes a spent nuclear rod so dangerous? The long and short of it is that a spent nuclear rod is spewing, at dangerously high rates, X-Rays and Gamma Rays continually. Almost everyone in a developed country has had an X-Ray in their life. Remember that lead blanket they put over you to isolate you from X-Rays? They do that because the human body does not react well to long exposure to X-Rays. Gamma Rays always bring to mind the Incredible Hulk, as that is most people’s relationship to them. Gamma Rays are what turned David Banner into the Hulk when he was exposed to them in the science lab. While that is an interesting creative depiction of Gamma Rays, what they do in actuality is mess with the stability of cells and their membranes which provide the correct conditions for destruction or mutation of cells.

It takes an average 10,000 years for a spent nuclear rod to come to a half life level of X-Rays and Gamma Rays where a human can be exposed without fear of a slow and painful death at the worst and just cancer at the best. Being exposed, results in a condition that is something like the wicked witch of the east melting in The Wizard of OZ, accept it’s real. Human tissue breaks down VERY rapidly in the midst of spent nuclear fuel. It’s VERY scary when we one allows yourself to be with the possibility of it. I’m no expert on nuclear energy, but that is my basic understanding of radioactivity and the effect it has on the human body.

Another interesting tidbit is that the latent radioactive energy inside our atmosphere has greatly increased since the US discovered the Bomb and conducted many above and below ground bomb test, which can probably be directly related to increase in cancer in the general populous.

So what do we currently do with spent nuclear fuel when we can’t boil water with it anymore? Mostly today, it is stored in heavy water at the site of nuclear reactors. However, those pools are filling up. So for many years the US Federal Government has been attempting to create a underground repository for all the spent nuclear fuel, located in the Yucca Mountains in Nevada, about 80 miles north of Las Vegas. That project has been a political hot potato for years, rightly so. Not in my back yard takes on an entire new meaning when its spent nuclear fuel. In 2002 the creation of Yucca Mountain as a geological repository, or said in a more straight manner, an underground storage location for spent nuclear fuel, was signed into law by the President. So, it is being built and eventually will house most of the spent nuclear fuel of the US. Makes you think twice about going to Las Vegas and certainly has create an Achilles heal for US enemies to potentially exploit and is your Tax Dollars at WORK!

So there is the deal, even if we can get 1000 years out of nuclear fuel, we have and are expanding something that takes 10,000yrs to become safe again. From a financial perspective, the building of Yucca Mountain and the management of it for the next 10,000 years is NOT put in those financial models and business plans that say it is one of the cheapest and safest forms of energy. It is NOT, and anyone that is saying it is, is not telling the truth or being holistic in their approach. Currently we have very few uses for spent nuclear fuel. Like our trash, we beery it deep in the ground without regard for future generations and the lovely underground problems we are leaving for them. Put all this together and what can clearly be said about nuclear energy is that it is not sustainable.

Nuclear energy as the solution to global warming makes about as much sense as religious zealots that serve a loving God killing in its name.

Wind, biomass and Solar have none of these long standing consequences. While they are not as efficient as nuclear and will take more jobs and land to make the same amount of energy, from what I can see, we need jobs and we have plenty of land. I implore our President, for our national pride and for our future generations to reconsider these lobbying efforts by energy companies to expand nuclear power in the US. Wind, Biomass and Solar are MUCH better and have so many fewer long term consequences. It is possible that we can stop the insanity?

US Energy Policy - New Politics & Old Energy - No Panacea!

Over the last several administration changes, I have been asked to make comments on what it means from business segments I know a little about - including that within the oil sector. The comments herein first address the overriding issue of the financial crisis and banking in the real world. Next involves the oil sector and one of the major opportunities for Zenergy.

First, there will be considerable issues with the hangover from high oil prices and home values / credit for years - since 2/3 of our economy is consumer spending. With Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae (half of home loans) not being addressed by Congress (lending to those who can’t afford them) and the increased Federal involvement in housing, the basis of our economic issues will be stretched way out years. For banking since we don’t know the true home values, bad banking balance sheets = too conservative lending. That’s needed anyway! While many DC politicians blame Wall St for the problem and made most of the profits, homeowners riding the wave did moreso (by $$$ growth). Congress should also point their fingers at themselves for forcing the bankers / lenders - and the originators - we will still bail them out and blame everyone else. The good news is that oil prices are down (prime driver of recessions) and people will eat, need energy and will need to move stuff. Productivity IT businesses will do well, too.

With the change in our national leadership and the predicted change in the attitude regarding energy companies (especially nuclear, coal & oil), we need to look at the opportunities as we move ahead. It is important to understand the approach of the oil industry, so we can position ourselves. When thinking business-wise what tightening of credit and the drop in crude oil prices means, oil company executives will act rationally and do what they think will be the best for their firms as will all types of businesses. Oil company approaches will vary depending on the oil firm. The issue for most businesses today regardless of types is cash generation. For oil companies, it means addressing old and new production (usually focusing on marginal increases versus large capacity ones) and  cost reduction (delay / reduce exploration).Over time this leads to a better supply-demand balance and a floor on prices. This is what was done in previous oil recessions.

Looking ahead, risk will be minimized for ROI resulting in less being spent on exploration, especially BIG projects (this is an easy one). Folks supplying services for all this will be hit most. For small / mid-sized explorers, there will be less cash available - due to saving of cash, too. We will see tax increases on oil companies, along with dramatically reduced profits (mostly from crude drop). The expectation is taxes will probably come in a mix of increased pump Federal tax and oil company income taxes, eliminated tax credits, probably no offshore / Federal land drilling and then adding in greenhouse gas legislation / taxes. If we don’t address supply with a viable alternative, we’ll get back into accelerated oil prices in a few years. We must also recognize that the average age of a vehicle in the US is 9-years with 3rd world nations being 20+ (e.g. Cuba), so oil will be needed for decades.

There are a great number of economical renewable energy projects available with good ROI’s.  They possess a common approach including: A.) meeting a specific mandate whether it be from government legislation, from public pressure or from purely an economic view point; B) do not require government subsidies to provide them with long-term ROI’s; C) address risk and can withstand significant downturns in our current energy infrastructure pricing such as oil, gas and coal; and D) have a break even time period of 3 years or less. The government not having laid out their proposals on how they will address energy or if they change the playing field mid-game, it will cause those deals requiring investment to be put off.

Then there is going to be the reconciling of food v. fuel debate - rightfully so. In assessing soy / rapeseed / palm-to-diesel, an important parameter within the world grains discussion for food and fuel is the grain stock-to-use ratio. For corn, soy, palm, rapeseed and rice, it’s the lowest since the 1970’s. For wheat, it’s the lowest ever. US and World stocks are very tight with 38% of the growth over the last three years in industrial use of oils was due to Biodiesel expansion. Soy went from 2 to 9% of the total; rapeseed went from 5 to 25% of the total and Palm from 16 to 23% (dampened by ecological reasons). Foreign buyers will have 13% less soy available to buy and yearly prices will be highest on record. South American growers (like our partner Phil Corzine in Brazil) will play a bigger role in the future.

All this leads to our immediate potential and the basis of Zenergy plans. First, oil companies need increased crude / feedstock production, especially on the diesel side. The oil companies can probably squeeze another 5% diesel out of a barrel of crude oil, but that’s it. The main thing refiners need to use to utilize the heavier oils are hydrotreaters - same type hardware for processing Renewable Diesel. Regardless, we all need production / feedstock - and Jatropha is a good option with relatively low cost / risk. It also allows for a marginal increase in production. Next, the diesel segment realizes a $10+ per barrel premium from a supply-demand standpoint. Then there is the potential Carbon Credit investment tax credits coming for the oil / energy companies - along with being green.

As a final thought, ethanol is being rethought my many in the big scheme of thing, but we won’t get into much of that in this overview. We must say that the corn-ethanol oxygenate market is a good one that can utilize current production today. Reminds us who have been around a while of gasohol as a primary fuel from the ’70’s. Grasses / woodchip  / paper (and pelletizing) are a good feedstock for the future, but also good today for GHG, green coal and home heating / cooking stoves. Separately, the T Boone Pickens natural gas deal - Prop 10 in CA - is a big defeat (all about paying for infrastructure), so that alternative was rejected with its current approach.

So we move on to the next chapter in our nation. In my opinion, Congress is mostly to blame for our problems - and their solutions are not even close to any panacea.  But opinions are like noses, everyone has one and they smell. Regardless, the solutions are up to us in the real world.

Jay Thompson - Board Member - Zenergy Companies